Save. Shop. Bot? A look at some back-to-class 2024 Consumer Trends

The back-to-class shopping season kicked off in July with survey results and studies from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and consultancy Deloitte dropping in typical timely fashions. A close examination of both studies revealed some noteworthy trends that parents and consumers have adopted for 2024 in the ever-changing retail landscape.

Gone but not forgotten are the concerns from 2020, when safety and students’ mental health were of primary concern in a nation uncertain how to deal once again with in-person learning. The triple threat of supply chain woes, stockouts, and inflation have long worried shoppers. But for 2024, three new, key issues separate from prior concerns stand out.

Spending Less

For the first time in recent back-to-class seasons, consumers reported plans to spend less overall. Although 2019 ushered in $26 billion in total back-to-classroom (defined as students ages K-12) spending, the post-COVID 19 years saw even more rise in spending predictions, with numbers for 2023 pushing the totals up to $41 billion. This year, results dropped to an anticipated $39 billion, or an average of $875 per household. Back-to-campus numbers follow a similar trend, where 2019 totals came in at $55 billion, spiked to $94 billion in 2023, and fell to $87 billion, or $1,365 on average per household, this year.

Inflation woes continue to be part of the consumer’s overall story, while fears about supply chain hangups or stock-outs have waned. Finding the better bargain for the same item has risen to the forefront. According to the NRF, 55% of consumers reported they had started shopping in early July, compared to 52% in 2020, and 51% in 2021.

Getting an early start was top-of-mind for 65% of respondents who said it was to “spread out” their budgets this year, higher than 63% in 2023 and 51% in 2020 when money was less of an object for more parents. A primary reason cited to start bargain shopping early is to take better advantage of good prices and promotions (45%).

In its findings, consultancy Deloitte wrote, “Families are caught in a balancing act as they prepare to embark on their second-largest expenditure of the year. [They’re] weighing the need to check necessities off school lists against splurging on the novelty items their children want.”

The NRF found that, like last season, back-to-school-aged families reported plans to shop for more sales and to do more comparative shopping. They also planned to lean more on generic and in-store brands and use more coupons in addition to spending less overall. One strategy for doing so included a willingness to check out the second-hand goods market. Clothing was a primary item back-to-school families said they would buy “pre-loved” 70%), while back-to-campus families chimed in with plans to purchase used textbooks the most (43%).

When Deloitte asked parents similar questions about the secondhand market, 74% reported not feeling guilty over purchasing pre-owned items for their students.

Return of the Mall?

As a holdover from 2020, consumers continue to favor a mix of online, in-person, and smartphone or app shopping. But malls, which have been declared dead, revived, and everything in between, saw a slight surge in traffic in July, according to recent Mall Index results released by analytic data firm Placer.ai.

According to the firm, unusually high temperatures may have helped increase consumer interest in getting out of the heat and into indoor malls, which saw visits rise 4.2% during the week of July 22 compared to the prior week. Visits to outlet malls, which generally require more in-and-out interaction to get from store-to-store, rose 7.7% during that same time period.

Placer.ai declared, “Nationwide shopping center visits have eclipsed pre-pandemic levels, growing 3% during the second quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter of 2019.”

Nevertheless, a robust omnichannel pipeline still remains one of the keys to consumers’ hearts. The Deloitte survey found that 70% of its respondents planned to seek out multichannel options this year, compared to 66% last year. And 33% of respondents planned to take advantage of “buy online, pick up in store” (BOPIS) options versus 21% in 2023.

Respondents shared with Deloitte that ultimately, it was convenience they were after and was where they were less price-sensitive, with 70% saying they would spend the most money where it was most convenient for them. Deloitte also found that consumers had a more fickle approach to where they would be spending because in this environment, “value beats loyalty.”

New Bot on the Block

We don’t have to look far to find a headline extolling the virtues of generative AI. But this year, it also looks like the technology is heading to class with 18% of survey respondents telling Deloitte they planned to deploy it. When quizzed about what they might put it to work doing, 23% of parents said it would help their child with schoolwork (compared to 15% in 2023). Saving time in one way or another was a top reason for 35% of respondents, while 76% said its reviews were “helpful” vis-à-vis shopping. Despite its somewhat controversial position in education, 35% of respondents said generative AI is a useful tool.

Time-saving and useful as AI may be, Deloitte bluntly noted, this is “an exhausting time for parents.”