Thrifting, Octobering, and Penny Pinching: A Look at the Holiday Shopper of 2024

We are four years past the uncertainty-related pandemic holiday Grinch factor and the consumer of 2024 remains somewhat intact while a little unpredictable around the year’s biggest shopping season. This year, the sticky factors around when to shop, what to buy, or where to shop center on weather-related impact from hurricanes in the mountains and an unusually short shopping window between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Between the predictions of trend watchers from the National Retail Federation (NRF), consultancy Deloitte, S&P Global, and Forrester and numbers that have from in for shopping through Cyber Monday, we have a lens into the collective consumer mindset for holiday shopping (Nov. 1 through Dec. 31).

Modest Increases Expected

According to the NRF, stores expected a record-breaking spend of between $979.5-$989 billion for the two-month shopping season – an increase of somewhere between 2.5% and 3.5% over last year’s figures. Drilling down even further, consumers expected to spend an average of $902 each, vs. $875 last year. Deloitte reported an expected 8% increase in spending compared to last year, while Forrester forecasted a 3.7% rise, with spending to reach $1 trillion compared to last year at $964 billion. On Black Friday alone this year, consumers spent an average of about $8 more each compared to 2023, totaling an average of $235, according to the NRF. 

Overall, a higher than expected number of 197 million shoppers took part during the five-day stretch (sometimes referred to as the “Cyber 5” or “Cyber Week”) from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, topping expectations of 183.4 million. This includes shoppers going to physical stores and shopping online. While this year’s figure is higher than expected, the 197 million is a tapering off from 2023, when 200 million took part. Black Friday was the busiest of the shopping days, with 81.7 million shoppers visit in-person while 87.3 million went online.

In fact, shoppers were fairly evenly divided between online and in-person on Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday, “Small Business Saturday,” and Sunday. Interestingly, the only day when in-store shopping outpaced online was Saturday – perhaps because people heeded the message behind Small Business Saturday, which is aimed at getting shoppers to support local businesses. However, on Cyber Monday, online shoppers outpaced in-store shoppers by a ratio of almost 3 to 1 – 64.4 million to 23.2 million.

Feeling the Financial Pinch from Last Year

Holiday 2023 spending broke records, and the NRF’s $955.6 billion fell in line with Forrester’s report of $964 billion. But behind the robust numbers for last year and the optimistic predictions for this year is a story of some consumers grappling with a lingering visit from the ghost of holidays past in the form of debt. 

According to recent findings released by WalletHub, nearly half of the survey’s 210 respondents reported that they were still paying off debts they had accumulated from their holiday spending last year. As a result, more than half (54%) said they planned to spend around the same amount this year and 31% planned to spend less. 

In 2023, inflation-related pricing pressure also bolstered overall spending results, which meant consumers had to pay more; a trend that continues. In its holiday update, S&P Global noted that inflation is “waning – but persistent,” and that it “has pressured household budgets.”

Spending More; Accumulating Less

In lieu of long lists and going after every item on them, more consumers shared plans to participated in the proverbial “collecting moments, not things” trend. But despite that, Black Friday saw shoppers eagerly snapping up deals, with apparel and accessories, toys, and person care items topping the list, according to results from the NRF.  

And sellers remain steadfast. Most consumers probably received some form of those dazzling holiday “warm up” promotions well before holiday shopping “officially” started. The promos drop every which way: emails, texts, social media promotions, physical catalogs, and flyers starting in mid-October, and contribute to what some call the “October factor” for holiday spending.

But another added layer here comes courtesy of legacy retailers unleashing designated sales to encourage early holiday shopping. This year’s October factor is expected to contribute 31% toward sales overall and 29.8% in online sales, similar to the numbers of 2023, according to research from Forrester.

An incentive for this, according to S&P Global, is the shorter shopping window. “Retailers may be trying to pull forward sales as consumers grow more cautious during the weeks leading up to the holiday, particularly during an election year and a shortened holiday shopping window,” wrote the team. “These steep discounts and big deals also reflect the highly promotional environment this season as value remains front of mind for consumers.” And the shorter window between holidays also led retailer to start touting “Black Friday” sales several weeks before the actual day.

In the omnichannel sphere, AI is also making its mark and having substantial impact on consumers. Attentive, which provides marketing services using AI for SMS and email marketing strategies, reported it sent 3.9 billion messages through those channels on behalf of it clients during Cyber Week – an increase of 38% over last year.

A Healthy Mix of Locations Regardless of Timing

Like most years, consumers plan to shop at a variety of places. Whether the rallying cry is “the mall is dead” or “long live the mall,” the fact remains that malls are a mainstay for many shoppers. In addition, online options remain strong. The NRF anticipates a rise of 8%-9% in online and other non-store sales this year, with 57% of its survey respondents reporting plans to shop online for some or all of their items. Forrester expects a 10% rise in online shopping, to $257 billion, up from $233 billion last year.

While Black Friday saw its share of enthusiastic participants, it was not to be outdone by Cyber Monday. Adobe Analytics, a firm that follows shoppers and trends, expected to see spending in the $13.2 billion range related to Cyber Monday, but consumers went big, spending $13.3 billion, which represents a rise by 7.3% compared to what consumers spent in 2023. 

One anticipated surprise standout ahead of Black Friday and Cyber Monday among the 18-24-year-old set for 2024 is the thrift or secondhand market. The NRF reported that 20% of survey respondents planned to thrift this year. A study by Wakefield also revealed that 59% of respondents said they’d check out pre-owned items, with 79% of the Gen Z population and 75% of millennials on the hunt for pre-owned items. Phil Rist, vice-president of strategy for Prosper Insights, which partners with the NRF for the survey, said in a press release, “Secondhand and refurbished gifts appeal to this age group’s desire to save money and be more sustainable.”

This year’s holiday shopping will break records but by different means. An increasing number of consumers will opt for quality-time moments so they can splurge on a trip of a lifetime. Others have decided to poke around secondhand shops for trinkets and treasures alike. Stores are lobbying shoppers earlier and with even more gusto to get in on the nearly $1 trillion in spend coming down the pipe.